TRADING IDEAS - POSITIVE ON EUROSTOXX 50

This is a new section of the blog where I share my view about possible long term ideas .
With the label "Trading ideas (no model)" I write ideas based on my own judgement and not my models.I can cover all assets I can trade worldwide.
the first idea for this year is a trade bullish on Europe, in particular the index Eurostoxx 50.

Recent move from ECB makes me optimistic on Eurozone equity for the next 4-6 months.
Even in the case of Tsipras victory in Greece, I think equities will be able to contain the short term volatility (buy on dip).

Based on recent history (US & Japan), QE had a good effect on equities at least for few months.
Charts shows the multi year breakout of the index thanks to expectations (realized later) about ECB new monetary policies. Moreover Draghi talked about QE effect to raise equities and real estate (it says like a statistic of past QE, I read it like its target)
If ECB is able to keep rates and € low for other months, we could have positive surprises from European earnings this year for Q1 & Q2 season. I am not sure we'll be able to beat deflation, but in the middle of the year market could believe it's possible and reward stocks.

HOW I AM PLAYING IT
Don't know if models will shift to euro equity at the end of the month (see the end of post for further considerations), but I'm going to try this trade for the 2015

My ideal target for the year is the range 3.900-4.400. Don't know if will take months to be touched, let's say that I believe the lower band will be touched in 2015.
Here how I'll play it (unless Greece elections change my mind in the short term):

• Usually European indices moves in a zig zag style. It means that you have positive weeks followed by 1 negative even if there's an uptrend. Last week was the second consecutive positive week, a third one is not likely, a fourth one is very unlikely...
• Because "zig zag" I'll start with a conservative approach. I'll sell put 3 months (April)with strike in the lower orange area. Level 3000 is the area for income, level 3200 is my ideal entry levels. These will be my strikes.
• I'll also enter a long position in 3 steps: 1st next week 20%; 2nd and 3rd if there's a pull back, 40% each. 

I think this is a conservative approach for a quite long term trade (if things don't go bad...). I could also go long 100% next week, but it's not my style enter 100% in one shot. Another possible plan would be to go short put otm and long call otm, with a long maturity. Don't plan to do it for myself.

STOP LOSS - As things can always go bad....I'll place stop losses below 2790 (October low) for optioons and below 2900 (December low) for the long

NOTE: if models 1-2-3 will go long euro equity (Dax or Ftsemib) for February, then my long strategy will be limited to put and I'll close my 20% long.
NOTE 2: as always, these are my considerations and if you follow me, you'll be responsible for your investments.