Models started with mixed returns. It's normal and healthy after a very strong end of 2016.
Let's let market set up interesting pattern.
Have a nice week end
Saturday, February 11, 2017
JANUARY PERFORMANCE
Here the first monthly performance of 2017.
Models started with mixed returns. It's normal and healthy after a very strong end of 2016.
Let's let market set up interesting pattern.
Have a nice week end
Models started with mixed returns. It's normal and healthy after a very strong end of 2016.
Let's let market set up interesting pattern.
Have a nice week end
Saturday, February 4, 2017
EURGBP - H&S looming?
This week I traveled to Milan to attend CFA forecast dinner day with Unicredit, Kairos and Pimco outlook (http://www.italiancfasociety.it/Events.aspx?ID=20170202). I enjoyed it very much.
At the end of the prominent speakers, in the Q&A session I asked about the outlook on the sterling because experts didn't touch the topic.
Answer: all of them were negative, mainly because Brexit is very uncertain and maybe English government doesn't know how to solve it. Because of higher uncertainty, all were underweight Sterling at the moment.
I agree that is going to be difficult to know what will happen in UK, but maybe a good portion of negative events are inside prices and probably a very short underweight Sterling positioning is the world consensus. Speculators are near record net short positions vs dollar, opening the chance of a short covering rally. (I'm curious to see if BOE will raise rates this year because of inflation).
I continue to stick with my rules (just for a portion of portfolio): buy sterling vs euro (ie short euro/gbp) above 0,85-0,90 and 0,95 (eventually). Don't buy each trade with less than 2 months of distance from each other (ie, if i buy in January I don't add before March) unless a significant fundamental news comes out.
sell Sterling strength (only half position) around 0-80-0,83 and hold the rest. I use EIB £ bonds with maturity no longer than 2018 .
But I want to point out just a technical figure
On the weekly basis it seems that an HEAD&SHOULDER pattern is building. It will be confirmed by a drop below 0,82 and target is....0,76 technically!!
Of course, until it doesn't break neckline, the pattern doesn't exist.
A rise of eurgbp around 0,90 could create a double top, but NEGATE the Head&Shoulder pattern that would be deleted.
I wait patiently, curious to see if premier May will be able to trigger art.50 before end of March, because now she needs the Parliament vote. The risk is that could take a but longer
At the end of the prominent speakers, in the Q&A session I asked about the outlook on the sterling because experts didn't touch the topic.
Answer: all of them were negative, mainly because Brexit is very uncertain and maybe English government doesn't know how to solve it. Because of higher uncertainty, all were underweight Sterling at the moment.
I agree that is going to be difficult to know what will happen in UK, but maybe a good portion of negative events are inside prices and probably a very short underweight Sterling positioning is the world consensus. Speculators are near record net short positions vs dollar, opening the chance of a short covering rally. (I'm curious to see if BOE will raise rates this year because of inflation).
I continue to stick with my rules (just for a portion of portfolio): buy sterling vs euro (ie short euro/gbp) above 0,85-0,90 and 0,95 (eventually). Don't buy each trade with less than 2 months of distance from each other (ie, if i buy in January I don't add before March) unless a significant fundamental news comes out.
sell Sterling strength (only half position) around 0-80-0,83 and hold the rest. I use EIB £ bonds with maturity no longer than 2018 .
But I want to point out just a technical figure
On the weekly basis it seems that an HEAD&SHOULDER pattern is building. It will be confirmed by a drop below 0,82 and target is....0,76 technically!!
Of course, until it doesn't break neckline, the pattern doesn't exist.
A rise of eurgbp around 0,90 could create a double top, but NEGATE the Head&Shoulder pattern that would be deleted.
I wait patiently, curious to see if premier May will be able to trigger art.50 before end of March, because now she needs the Parliament vote. The risk is that could take a but longer
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
February Allocation
These are the temporary allocations for February. I am traveling therefore I could have done some mistakes with excel. In the week end I'll calculate again and confirm the allocations.
update 4 Feb: allocations were correct
update 4 Feb: allocations were correct
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