In the week end I'll publish a comment with performance tables
These are the preliminary allocations
MODEL 1 - Euro govies 1-3 years (confirmed)
MODEL 2 - Euro High Yield bonds (changed!)
MODEL 3 - 50% Euro government bonds 15-30y (Confirmed)
50% Gold (changed!)
MODEL 3.4 - 34% Global convertible bonds (Confirmed)
33% Gold (changed!)
33% Japanese bonds (changed!)
MODEL 4 - 66% euro government 1-3 years (changed)
11% emerging bond $ (changed)
11% euro government bonds (Confirmed)
11% global bonds (changed)
MODEL 4 US - 66% US short term bonds (changed)
11% Emerging bonds $ (changed)
11% US government bonds (confirmed)
11% Global bonds (confirmed)
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Follow up on 7 Nov with tables
I wrote down the allocation at the beginning of month, now I'm going to post the comments.
Because of some trends emerging in some assets, the models changed allocations. Except the MODEL 1 that is very conservative and switch only with a strong trend, in all other models we have some variations.
October was a positive month and until now all models are positive year to date. Below you can see the performance and the charts of model 1-2-3.
The model 4 US performance ytd is +0,3% vs -0,5% equal weighted portfolio
A friend of mine asked me about model 4 and the fact the it rarely switches into equity. I built it to give better long term risk/reward and this is the way it works because i don't like big draw-down. But there's a version Beta that follow the long term trend in stocks and can stay into equity for many consecutive months. I'm not thinking at the moment to publish it because these 4 models take me time to comment. Moreover I'm working into a much bigger project at the moment to go long & short on futures and it's very time-demanding. By the way I don't exclude the chance to post the Model4.2 too starting since 2016.
