GAPS OF FOREX - TRADING IDEAS

This is a personal blog. The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer. In addition, my thoughts and opinions change from time to time. I consider this a necessary consequence of having an open mind. This weblog is intended to provide thoughts on markets. All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only and you area the only responsible if you decide to invest your own money according my opinions.

Because of French elections last Sunday, European markets reacted with strong moves on Monday, discounting already a Macron victory on May the 7th. Probably Macron will win, but with a margin smaller than polls suggestions. Of course if Le Pen surprise....fasten your belt!

By the way, the moves created many gaps on euro crosses and this could open a chance for short term trading. Since I follow the markets, I don't remember a gap on a major currency, freely market based, that hasn't been filled in few days.
I'll post the charts of 4 euro crosses (Usd, Chf, Yen and Gbp) that could offer a trade opportunity. By the way, as trading is always uncertain and this is just a high likely trade (in my opinion, but it could be wrong), don't bet the home. Just use the normal trade size. Gbp was my favorite one (I have the bias for Gbp until speculators continue to be record net short on the currency) and is almost filled, I'm thinking about opening a new one between Chf and Yen next Monday or Tuesday.

A gap was created on major European equity indexes too. I am positive on Euro equities for this year but, at the present, it's beginning to be a TOO MUCH consensus trade. Most funds are long Europe or opening positions after French 1st round result.
I like the trend of Eurostoxx50, but I will not rush buying it now, even if it could rise another 150points. I hold the equities by Models and won't add other discretionary trades at the moment. I'd like buying on dip. 

A VIEW ON THE MARKETS

This is a personal blog. The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer. In addition, my thoughts and opinions change from time to time. I consider this a necessary consequence of having an open mind. This weblog is intended to provide thoughts on markets. All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only and you area the only responsible if you decide to invest your own money according my opinions.

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BRENT

EURGBP

EUROSTOXX 50

EURUSD

GERMANY 10Y RATE

GOLD IN EURO

GOLD $

TREASURY LONG TERM (TLT)

S&P500

 

FIRST QUARTER PERFORMANCE

Hi
in the last month I was quite busy and I didn't update the  blog with market view. I also spent 1 week holiday in Wien. It's a very beautiful city, nice people and I recommend a trip there.
Coming to my models, the first quarter had mixed results

Model 1 and 2 that are the most conservative have negative returns year to date, but not in a dramatic way. Just -0,4% and -1% respectively. Nothing worrying so far.

All the many versions of Models 3  (most aggressive with expected variance of 7-8% a year) had a very good start with performances between 5,5 and 7,9%.

Models 4, those are quite diversified and good for Asset Allocation of big accounts, are positive. The European models are beating the benchmark, while US versions are lagging. They are built to beat benchmark over the economic cycle: tend to lag benchmark in good times and overperform when things turn to the worst.

Below you can see the 1° Quarter performance summary.

That's all for now. I hope to be able to find some time next week end for some weekly charts on markets.

APRIL ALLOCATION

Here we go with the April Allocation.

Most aggressive models (3.xx) continue to push with the trend in the equity....until it ends!

The most conservatives took an hit in March and returned defensive for April into short-term bonds or cash.

Model 4 had just few changes.