PERFORMANCE NOVEMBER

Here the models performance in November and YTD.
Even if november wasn't positive for all models, I'm very satisfied.. December is good so far...hope markets will hold these levels until the end of the year

THE WEEKLY VIEW - S&P500, TREASURY, GOLD, EURGBP

Disclaimer: In this post I write my opinions and trading idea (not always in line with my company). If you choose to act like me, you are assuming your responsibility for your investment decisions, because I could be wrong as every human being.

After about 1 month since the last weekly view, let's see what's going on medium term in some assets I monitor

S&P500

In the previous post I pointed out the risk of a bearish weekly signal looming, that could lead to higher volatility. After few days, S&P500 reversed and began to rise fast, therefore the sell signal never materialized.  So there's not motive to be bearish.
At the moment the market is in strong uptrend, probably quite overbought and could correct. Probably the first dip could be used as entry point, around 2165-2190.

GOVERNMENT BONDS

In the previous post I wrote that the ETF GOVT was dropping towards an important support area. It reached the area where one can begin to buy for a rebound. Personally I stick with the last comment, ie I'd try to buy at 24.5 and sell 0,80-1$ higher.
Medium term is short at the moment, but a rebound could have a target around 25.25-25.50 .

GOLD

In previous post I pointed out to be a buyer a 1150$. The idea is still valid, even if something fundamental changed. ETF gold holdings are dropping fast, signaling institutional investors are exiting. Moreover China and India could reduce demand to fight tax evasion (Indian) or put a brake on capital outflows (China)
From a fundamental point of view, Gold is weaker than few weeks ago.
Because I have a permanent long term position on Gold and fundamentals are getting worse, this time I'll avoid buying at 1150. I have a buy order around the bottom of 2015 in area 1050 for trading.

EURGBP

I confirm what I wrote in previous post and also wrote on Twitter few days ago when it was around this week bottom.

Medium term trend is still up on eurgbp above 0,83-0,80. I reduced long sterling positions below 0,84.
Above 0,87 I'll add other positions, better at 0,90 eventually using EIB 2018 or 2019 gbp bonds to reduce interest rate risk.
In the case of a drop towards 0,80, I'll sell all my sterlings.
Unless a very strong devaluation of pound (rise of eurgbp) happens in the short term, I won't add sterling exposure before Supreme Court result in January.

For this week is all, if you are interested in my idea about other assets, just drop me a message here or on Twitter.

DECEMBER ALLOCATION

Here we go with the last Monthly allocation for 2016.
So far this is a year of satisfactions

Most defensive models switch to safest short term bonds (if you can go on sight deposits to avoid negative rates). Most aggressive models continues with $ exposure and stocks