A nice video about real hard trader life

everyone would like to be a trader to make big money, but how many have the skill (tech &psyco) to do it?

Performances and considerations

In the previous post at the beginning of the month I posted the February allocations.
I'm going to re-publish them with a new format that can help the reading

This beginning of the year was very tough, with an incredible volatility and some long term trends that reversed or arrived close to give the sell signal. Economy is slowing down but yield curve doesn't forecast an US recession within 12 months. Some analysts argue that yield curve could be affected by ZIRP rate around the world (somewhere is NIRP too, ie negative interest rate policy), but I want to believe that curve can maintain its forecast skill now. By the way, what seems sure is that there's a strong slowdown in global economy, especially in Emerging Markets and in manufacturing industry Because of ZIRP that created overcrowded positions on some assets, market overreacted to these fears caused by China, crude oil, bad macro data.
I'm pleased that models were able to avoid the huge volatility and closed mixed. Of course in a zero interest rate world, it's difficult to stay on safe assets for long times.
Below you can see the summary

Safe Model 1 closed slightly above 0% and continue to remain defensive.
Model 2 benefited from end of month inflation bonds rally and switched safe for this month.
Models 3 had mixed performances
Models 4 were mixed as well, outperforming their Benchmarks (equal weighted portfolios).

Trading signal (call spread on the European stocks) is losing money, but I'm glad i chose this strategy that has a defined maximum loss because of long term deterioration patterns in the equity.

For this month we have long term bond, dollar & yen  exposure and the two safest models are on cash. It's an interesting month with volatility that continue to be high. Luckily we have just a very small exposure on equity (model 4$ equity bias).
In this environment, I'm happier to avoid huge roller-coasters than doing equity bottom hunting.

February allocations

FEBRUARY ALLOCATIONS (preliminary)

MODEL 1 - Euro govies 1-3 years or sight deposits with a positive rate. 100%

MODEL 2 -  Euro govies 1-3 years or sight deposits with a positive rate. 100%

MODEL 3 - Euro govies 15-30 years            50%
                     Treasuries 7-10 years                 50%

MODEL 3 (more aggressive) *** - Euro govies 15-30 years            50%
                                                           Treasuries 7-10 years           50%

MODEL 3 Variable weights ***    Euro govies 15-30 years            52%
                                                           Treasuries 7-10 years           48%

MODEL 3.4    Global convertible     bonds                                  34%
                       Japanese bonds                                                    33%
                       Treasuries 7-10 years                                           33%

MODEL 3.4 Variable weights ***  Global convertible     bonds    28%
                       Japanese bonds                                                     35%
                       Treasuries 7-10 years                                            37%

MODEL 3.4 (more aggressive) ***      Global convertible     bonds       34%
                       Japanese bonds                                                             33%
                       Treasuries 7-10 years                                                    33%

MODEL 3.5  ***      Govies euro 15-30y                                             34%
                                Treasuries 7-10 years                                           33%
                                Global convertible     bonds                                  33%
                 
MODEL 4 € Euro govies 1-3 years or sight deposits with a positive rate    66,7%
                      Emerging sovereign bonds                                                11,1%
                      Euro government bonds                                                    11,1%
                      Global  bonds                                                                  11,1%

MODEL 4 € equity push Euro govies 1-3 years or sight deposits with a positive rate    66,7%
                      Emerging sovereign bonds                                                11,1%
                      Euro government bonds                                                    11,1%
                      Global  bonds                                                                  11,1%                                                                 11,1%

MODEL 4 USA             Treasury Short term 1-3y  88.9%
                                      US Treasury                   11,1%
                                     

MODEL 4 USA equity push      ***              Treasury Short term 1-3y  77.7%
                                                                    S&P500                            11,1%
                                                                    US Treasury                   11,1%

In coming days I'll post comments