In this hot Sunday I feel myself inspired, maybe because my holidays weeks are getting closer.
I want to post this chart, to discuss how the S&P500 often likes to cheat investors
Can you see it? I show you what is see....
S&P500 likes to take stops of long investors and let people to scream about the next bear market.
Last Summer China brought volatility on the markets and S&P500 dropped below old important support (see first circle on the left about at 1980). At the same time many technicians called for a bear market looming because weekly MACD crossed below 0.
In few weeks S&P500 stabilized and rebounded.
This January a similar situation happened driven by crude oil crash. S&P500 broke the support 1880 and MACD again crossed below 0. Again many investors called for a crash...but S&P500 was able to stabilize and raise again.
Now it stands close to record. What could happen?
Don't know if S&P will fall soon or later, but this is the scenario that could drive many investors towards the bad trading decision and I am waiting for it:
* For any motive S&P500 could fall in September/October below 2000
* MACD could again cross below 0 and let investors screaming about a bear looming
* maybe the most dramatic call could arrive if index drops for few days below the 1800 support (but the fall could just stop earlier, around 1850-1900 because of huge cash around).
Well, it's difficult to say what is going to happen, but I continue to believe that 2016 is the year of US Equity market compared to Europe and on the next dip I'll be buyer after few days of stabilization.
To become pessimistic about US Equity I want to see Global Fund manager in strong overweight on US equity. At the moment, according the monthly survey by Bofa-ML, the overweight is light.
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