It's difficult to time exactly when the Sterling will touch the bottom vs euro and US Dollar, because UK Authorities doesn't have a plan yet, but I decided to start buying Pounds now.
Below in the chart in the area where I plan to buy Pounds vs Euro in coming quarters in a gradual path.
Basically my "buy area" is between 0,85 and 1. It's a wide range, but Brexit is an unprecedent event and it's very difficult to build a future scenario.
Because of this uncertainty, I am going to buy "a piece" every 3-4 months above 0,85 and close the position if the cross drops towards 0,80 before art.50.
ASSUMPTIONS & RISKS
There's an high uncertainty about Brexit timing (UK Premier May said it could ask art.50 by April 2017). Actually is not sure if UK will never ask art.50 and/or if they'll call for another elections before asking it.My base assumption is that:
- when UK will ask art.50, Economy could suffer (or market will expect an economy slowdown) resulting in Sterling depreciation. If they ask within 2016 the depreciation could be this year towards 0,90
- If they delay the call too much, we could have a temporary £ strengthening, followed by a renewed depreciation later in 2017 or 2018
- From a long term point of view, the Pound is undervalued vs euro and US Dollar.
Technically the trend is for a eur/gbp vs resistance 0,90 and $/£ vs 1,25 in next quarters.
Because at the moment we have RECORD net short £ speculators positions vs USdollar (see CFTC data(, the market is exposed to risk of a short term reversal, that could be deep. Especially vs USd, a rise of cable towards 1,40 would not reverse the long term bear trend! That would be a good place to reopen short sterling positions if it happens with Brexit risk still real (if it happens because they renounce is another environment and the short could not be appropriate)
That's why I began to invest in Sterling. Not heavily, but I am adding gradually exposure.
At the moment I just put the "toe in the water" a shy above 0,85. I'll add if it rises to 0,90.
In Summary:
- Brexit timing is quite difficult to forecast, because also UK authorities don't know how and when do it (in my opinion)
- Sterling lost a lot since Brexit referendum, Economy is not suffering yet and Speculators have record net short positions on the currency resulting in a "short squeeze" risk
- I think it would be a nice moment to begin purchases of £ vs euro and $, not all in, but gradually. Personally I am going to buy above 0,85 eur/gbp every 4 months, and I'll be flexible with news. I'll close my position if in the short term the eur/gbp drops towards 0,80, because I think the Sterling needs to be weak to avoid recession when Art.50 is invoked.
- I am doing this strategy buing European Investment Bank bonds in £ that still have small positive yield, with a maturity between 2 and 3 years. If you are a US investor, you're lucky because you can also buy Gilts, hedge them and have an yield (hedged) much higher than your Treasury yield on the same maturity
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