Saturday, November 26, 2016

Dollar Index - much higher in the long term?


As I often write, I like long term patterns to understand what's going on structurally.
The recent Dollar Strength pushed the €/$ below 1,06 with many commentators wondering if parity is coming soon.

In the short term dollar is quite overbought and could rebound, but what's going on under the surface?
Let's have a look at the dollar index and the long term chart show us a big risk of strong dollar appreciation in the future.

After almost 2 years of trading range, recently DXY rose above the important resistance 100.40
It's a monthly chart, therefore the eventual break-out will be confirmed on the 30th November.
But the chart lets me think that something big is going to happen in the next 1-3 years



Fundamental explanations could be many: 1) crisis in Europe 2) political monetary divergences between Fed and other major central banks 3) China collapse and flight to quality towards dollar 4) Global recession with the same flight to quality 5) Trump infrastructure plan, economy surprisingly strong in US and Dollar purchases 6) wars, etc etc etc.

We can find many motivations and it's difficult to say now what will be the cause. I think that in the next 12-24 months there will be a G20 meeting about the excessive Dollar strength and we could see another "Plaza Accord"(click for info)

Of course the opposite could happen: the breakout finishes in a "Bull trap" and this is going to be the multiyear top for Dollar. Because Bull traps exist and I could be wrong, this is my strategy. I am a Dollar Bull thinking since 2 years that €/$ parity is the "at least" the first target. Because of European situation I think we could see 0,90-0,85 within 2020.
But I also know that I could be overly pessimistic, so the strategy is:

a) Long term chart points to Dollar Strenght with first target on DXY at 104 and major swing target around 112-114
b) I expect (but could not happen ) a short term pull back (from 1 to 6 months). Therefore Dollar could return below the resistance and then to surge later
3) My Bullish Dollar plan will take a stop with DXY falling below 91. In that case the breakout would have been a failure
4) Optimal pull back should not see DXY to retrace below 97
5) Finally reminds that in the long term view, this bull trend will be over only below 80. Of course if this happens...the above called target probably won't be realized in the next years.

Let Enjoy this ride, remembering that excessive Dollar Strength will cause problems in the World (non only in the USA, but Asia and Emerging Countries), so be prepared for asset volatility if next leg up accelerates in 2017-18.




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