Emergency May allocation

My pc continue to go & return from the tech office because they don't understand what is broken
I found an old pc for emergency but Excel version is quite old and I have troubles running my models.
By the way I was able to run them finally and I post an update of MAY ALLOCATION

Later in the month I'll post an update with the performances in the last 2 months.

Emergency April Allocation

My pc continues to be broken, but I calculated allocations using a pc from a friend of mine.
I'm going to post just "raw" allocations on the basics models and when I'll have my one (not before 10 days if I'm lucky) I'll post the full allocations for tracking history

MODEL 1 Euro High Yield 100%
MODEL 2 Euro High Yield 100%
MODEL 3 classic     Gold 50%   ---- Euro govies 15-30years  50%
MODEL 3.4   Gold 34% ----Euro govies 15-30years  33% - EM bonds local currency 33%


MODEL 4 €    Euro govies 56% ----- Emerging Bonds $ 11% --- euro HY 11% ---- Eurobonds 11% ---- Developed market properties 11%

MODEL 4$    Treasury 1-3y 34%  --- S&P500 11% ---- Emerging bonds $ 11% ----HY USA 11% ----- US Govies 11% ----Global bonds 11% ---- Developed markets properties 11%.

I wrote them down fast and did calculations quickly as well.
Hope there are not mistakes.

Bye bye

PC BROKE DOWN

this month I'll not be able to update allocations at the beginning of the month because of tech issues.

I'll post it later in the month for info purposes when I'll be able to reach a temporary pc.

February Performances

February was a quite good month with all models that recorded positive performances.

Model 1& 2 continue to stay defensive and could struggle over the year with this negative yield environment...Central Banks (ECB.....) is not helping....
Model 3 recorded a positive performance thanks to $ and yen exposure, as well  good euro government bond environment.
Models 4 recorded a small positive gain and are overperforming their benchmark (it's quite common when stocks markets are weak).

March is going to be more difficult with an high dollar & bond volatility because of central banks action.

ECB used a nuclear weapon last week (it was unexpected for me the TLTRO with theoretically negative rates to banks...), let's see Fed what will say next week. I think the Fed will try to rise rates further in the year because they know that in the next recessions weapons will be exhausted.
ECB is already all in, signaling that situation on this side of the Ocean is quite bad...

Let's surf this market in 2016, but it will be an high volatility environment.

March Allocation

Few changes for March. February was a good month for us
Later in the month I'll publish performances and considerations

A nice video about real hard trader life

everyone would like to be a trader to make big money, but how many have the skill (tech &psyco) to do it?

Performances and considerations

In the previous post at the beginning of the month I posted the February allocations.
I'm going to re-publish them with a new format that can help the reading

This beginning of the year was very tough, with an incredible volatility and some long term trends that reversed or arrived close to give the sell signal. Economy is slowing down but yield curve doesn't forecast an US recession within 12 months. Some analysts argue that yield curve could be affected by ZIRP rate around the world (somewhere is NIRP too, ie negative interest rate policy), but I want to believe that curve can maintain its forecast skill now. By the way, what seems sure is that there's a strong slowdown in global economy, especially in Emerging Markets and in manufacturing industry Because of ZIRP that created overcrowded positions on some assets, market overreacted to these fears caused by China, crude oil, bad macro data.
I'm pleased that models were able to avoid the huge volatility and closed mixed. Of course in a zero interest rate world, it's difficult to stay on safe assets for long times.
Below you can see the summary

Safe Model 1 closed slightly above 0% and continue to remain defensive.
Model 2 benefited from end of month inflation bonds rally and switched safe for this month.
Models 3 had mixed performances
Models 4 were mixed as well, outperforming their Benchmarks (equal weighted portfolios).

Trading signal (call spread on the European stocks) is losing money, but I'm glad i chose this strategy that has a defined maximum loss because of long term deterioration patterns in the equity.

For this month we have long term bond, dollar & yen  exposure and the two safest models are on cash. It's an interesting month with volatility that continue to be high. Luckily we have just a very small exposure on equity (model 4$ equity bias).
In this environment, I'm happier to avoid huge roller-coasters than doing equity bottom hunting.