December allocation

November allocation

October allocations

September allocation

with a bit of delay the September allocations

 

Below the performance of 2 portfolios with ETFs (allocating at the close of 1st trading day of the new month) . August was a very good month

August Allocation

Sorry for delay, but it's holiday season.
Here the allocation for August.

Below the performance of Model 3.vw and Model 3.4vw (the one i use) buying the ETFs at the closing price of next month's first day (example signal 31 July, purchase 1st August)
It's a difficult year (it was very good until May) and now they are struggling to recover.

July monthly allocations

Unfortunately I was right last month about the May's fear.
Trade war increased volatility as it happened in May 2018 when the new italian government created volatility.

May Asset Allocation

The more aggressive models 3s go all in on the equity markets,
fingers crossed....
May usually isn't a good month for my models

April Asset allocation

March Asset Allocation

February asset allocation

2018 PERFORMANCES

2018 was a difficult year with most asset classes in negative territory.

My models suffered as I fear.  

In many months returns were negative, but at the end I am not completely disappointed.

Actually, I am quite satisfied about the strength in one of the worse year in the last decade.

The defensive Model 1 (1 ETF a month) returned around 0%.

semidefensive Model 2 (1 ETF a month) returned a positive performance.

The more aggressive Models 3 (2 ETF a month) had a negative year, but were able to recover thanks to the exposure in gold and Treasury in the last part of the year.

The updated Model 3 versions (3.4 with 3 ETF a month) were able to finish in green, and I am quite happy about that.

The Model 3.5 (3 ETF but different timeframes) was the worst losing almost 4%.

Most Models 4 (€ and $ - up to 9 ETFs) had performance slightly negative, but everyone did bettere than benchmark (is composed by an equal-weighted portfolio of 9 asset classes).

In Summary, 2018 is not a year to remember for huge gains, but at least losses were manageable and less than many asset classes. As I wrote when I opened this blog:

investing is trying to maximize what the environment gives. As a farmer, some years are good, others are normal, others are very bad. With these models, with humility I try to have good returns in good years, minimizing the losses in bad times.

I think that 2018 was an year where the loss minimization target was reached

Jan 2019 Asset Allocation

In coming days I'll post the 2018 performances. 
It was a difficult year